A Wide-Open US Open: Sinner Sidelined, Alcaraz Returns and Sabalenka Chases History in New York

The tennis calendar has reached its grand finale, as the last Grand Slam of the year gets underway in New York. Yet this edition of the US Open arrives with a sense of unpredictability that is rare at the very top of the sport, thanks to a series of injuries and storylines that have thrown both the men's and women's competitions wide open before a single ball has been struck.

The champion returns

At the heart of the men's draw stands the defending champion, Carlos Alcaraz, who arrives in New York looking to protect the title he won so memorably last year. His victory in 2025 came at the expense of his great rival Jannik Sinner, whom he defeated in four sets to claim the crown, setting up what many hoped would be a renewed rivalry this time around.

However, Alcaraz himself is not arriving in perfect condition, which adds a fascinating layer of uncertainty to his title defence. The Spaniard is making his return from a right wrist injury that had sidelined him for roughly four months, meaning his opening match represents his first singles outing since April, a daunting prospect for anyone chasing a Grand Slam.

The Sinner-sized hole

The biggest talking point of the entire tournament, however, is not who is playing but rather who is absent from the field this year. Jannik Sinner, the man who pushed Alcaraz all the way in last year's final and one of the two dominant forces in modern men's tennis, will not be taking part in the 2026 edition at all.

The reason for his withdrawal is a right knee injury that has forced him out of contention entirely, and that absence reshapes the entire tournament. With one of the two clear favourites removed from the equation before the action begins, the pathway to the title has suddenly become far less predictable, opening the door for a host of other contenders to dream.

New names at the top

With Sinner gone and Alcaraz carrying question marks over his fitness, the seedings tell an interesting story about the shifting hierarchy. It is Alexander Zverev who occupies the position of top seed for this tournament, placing the German veteran in a prime spot to finally capture the elusive first Grand Slam title that has evaded him for so long throughout his career.

The draw has also produced some intriguing potential collisions further down the line for the biggest names. Notably, Alcaraz and the evergreen Novak Djokovic have been placed in the same half of the draw, which means that these two crowd favourites cannot possibly meet until the semifinal stage, setting up a potential blockbuster clash late in the second week.

Sabalenka hunts history

The women's competition carries its own compelling narrative, centred on the formidable figure of Aryna Sabalenka. Leading the field as the top seed, she is also the two-time defending champion, having conquered New York in each of the last two years, and now she stands on the brink of achieving something truly historic in the sport.

Should Sabalenka triumph again, she would complete a three-peat, winning the title three years in a row, a feat that no woman has managed at the US Open since the legendary Serena Williams did so between 2012 and 2014. Matching such an icon would firmly cement Sabalenka's status among the modern greats of the women's game.

Cracks in the armour

Yet her path to history is far from guaranteed, and there are genuine signs of vulnerability that her rivals will be eager to exploit. Sabalenka has struggled in tight contests recently, losing five of the seven matches she has played that stretched to a deciding third set, suggesting a fragility under the most intense pressure that could prove costly.

That vulnerability was laid bare in her final tune-up event before the Grand Slam began. In the tournament at Cincinnati, she suffered a surprise defeat in straight sets at the hands of the unseeded twenty-year-old Sára Bejlek, a result that will have given every other contender in the draw a genuine belief that the champion can indeed be toppled.

A fortnight of possibilities

All of these threads combine to create a tournament brimming with intrigue and open possibility right across both draws. On the men's side, the combination of a returning yet rusty champion, a huge absentee, and a hungry top seed means the title feels genuinely up for grabs in a way it has not for some time.

On the women's side, the tension between Sabalenka's quest for immortality and her recent flickers of fragility promises high drama at every turn. As the action gets underway in New York, tennis fans can settle in for a fortnight where, for once, almost anything feels possible and the usual certainties have been cast aside.